President Trump Says the War in Ukraine Is Close to an End. Is It an End Ukrainians Want?

In the president’s recent 60 Minutes interview, which we’ve already commented on, Trump boasted that the war in Ukraine was close to an end. U.S., Russian and Ukrainian negotiators are scheduled to meet in Abu Dhabi on November 10 and 11, after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke with U.S. envoys about preparing for the talks. [1, 2] But I want to point to a comment Trump made about what comes after a deal. He said, “they’re gonna end up with a little bit different shape Ukraine.” [3]

I don’t think this will come as a surprise. Despite the many defeats Russia has suffered at Ukraine’s hands, it still holds about 19% of the country, including Crimea and territory seized before the full-scale invasion. [4] Putin has shown little sign of backing down, even with Russian military losses reaching a staggering level. The U.K. foreign secretary put the number of Russian troops killed or wounded at more than 1.5 million. [5] Meduza, relaying The Economist’s reporting from an unnamed source close to Putin, reported that Putin said, “They will hang me,” about the prospect of ending the war without achieving his goals in the Donbas. [6] I don’t expect the war to slow down as long as Putin is president. I see two routes to a speedy peace in the region, direct European and U.S. involvement in the war or heavy concessions by Ukraine.

An October poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology found that 61% of respondents in government-controlled Ukraine considered it categorically unacceptable to give Russia the entire Donbas, even in exchange for U.S. and European security guarantees. [7] And that’s just the Donbas! Russia already holds Crimea and parts of the Donbas, and Putin has insisted on taking the rest of the Donbas. [4, 6] As long as Putin remains in power, I expect him to keep stacking the Russian dead in pursuit of that goal.

Where does this leave Ukrainians? Well, it’s sad to say, but I think they’re facing a grueling continuation of the war, with no definite sign of relief. If the deal Trump cooks up with Putin hands Russia the entire Donbas, I don’t see Zelenskyy or most Ukrainians in that poll accepting it. [1, 7] And though the thought of continued war may fill many with anxiety for the Ukrainian people, I wouldn’t count them out. Russia Matters put Russia’s net gain at about 20 square miles from October 6 to November 3, a stretch that included a week when it lost a net 18 square miles. [4, 8] Ukraine may be facing a giant, but Ukrainians have taken the axe and will not stop chopping till it falls.