The Future of the Iran War; American Defeat or Regional Security

The Iran war weighed on voters in the 2026 midterms. The AP Voter Poll found that about six in ten voters said taking military action was the “wrong decision.” Americans have seen the cost at the pump and in the lives of U.S. service members. The Congressional Budget Office estimated that as of Aug. 1, “the armed conflict with Iran has cost DoD approximately $38 billion.” (Defense or War, take your pick.) Now that Democrats have won Congress, how do we end the war while preserving the diplomatic influence the United States has built in the Middle East?

There is plenty of opposition to the war, but the country is still working out what an acceptable end looks like. In September, YouGov reported that “there is no consensus over how to end the conflict.” Only 24% of U.S. adult citizens in its survey backed a much larger military campaign. I don’t see a ground war as the only way to secure a better outcome. I’d judge a deal by whether ships can safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz and whether it lowers the risk of renewed fighting. In August, Oman and Iran described a proposal for a “joint temporary navigational corridor through the Strait of Hormuz” and work to clear mines. That’s the kind of specific arrangement I want Washington to pursue with regional partners.

Democrats have a unique opportunity. The first step should be for Congress to reassert its authority over U.S. military involvement. The War Powers Resolution calls for the “collective judgment of both the Congress and the President” when U.S. forces enter or remain in hostilities. Congress can hold public hearings, demand a clear account of the mission and use its votes on authorization and funding to set limits. The administration’s handling of the war has been a catastrophe. Lawmakers should insist on a plan to bring it to a close.

Step two is to investigate Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and hold an impeachment vote if the evidence warrants it. Republican Rep. Thomas Massie introduced eight articles in September, including one accusing Hegseth of “continuing hostilities in Iran after expiration of the War Powers Resolution’s 60-day termination period.” Hegseth dismissed the articles as a sham. Congress should test those allegations in public. If the United States wants any chance at a durable settlement, it needs defense leadership that can account for its decisions, protect U.S. service members and support diplomacy.

A settlement that gives regional partners a stake in Gulf security could help limit Russia’s influence and give Democrats something concrete to point to in 2028. Brace yourself for what is to come in 2027, because I predict this war is not finished day 1 of the new congress.